Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 42,833
2 Louisiana 38,519
3 South Dakota 38,247
4 Mississippi 37,159
5 Alabama 35,382
6 Florida 35,232
7 Iowa 34,266
8 Tennessee 33,425
9 Arkansas 33,003
10 South Carolina 31,970
11 Arizona 31,864
12 Wisconsin 31,460
13 Georgia 30,780
14 Nebraska 30,405
15 Idaho 30,285
16 Texas 30,126
17 Utah 29,807
18 Nevada 29,536
19 Illinois 27,813
20 Oklahoma 27,312
21 Missouri 26,761
22 Rhode Island 26,758
23 Kansas 25,612
24 New York 25,188
25 New Jersey 25,105
26 Delaware 23,820
27 North Carolina 23,603
28 District of Columbia 23,230
29 Maryland 22,601
30 Indiana 22,516
31 California 22,339
32 Minnesota 22,074
33 Montana 21,990
34 Massachusetts 20,963
35 Kentucky 20,243
36 Virginia 19,545
37 Puerto Rico 18,145
38 Connecticut 17,956
39 New Mexico 17,789
40 Alaska 16,592
41 Michigan 16,427
42 Wyoming 16,087
43 Ohio 15,708
44 Colorado 15,060
45 Pennsylvania 14,719
46 Washington 13,568
47 West Virginia 11,323
48 Hawaii 10,041
49 Oregon 9,436
50 New Hampshire 7,167
51 Maine 4,435
52 Vermont 3,118

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 927
2 South Dakota 765
3 Montana 570
4 Wisconsin 430
5 Tennessee 398
6 Utah 373
7 Wyoming 372
8 Nebraska 360
9 Idaho 352
10 Minnesota 298
11 Missouri 297
12 Illinois 295
13 Alaska 292
14 Indiana 280
15 Iowa 250
16 New Mexico 243
17 Kansas 241
18 Nevada 232
19 Oklahoma 232
20 Arkansas 227
21 Alabama 211
22 Rhode Island 206
23 Kentucky 199
24 North Carolina 175
25 Colorado 174
26 Texas 166
27 Michigan 163
28 Delaware 161
29 Ohio 160
30 Puerto Rico 160
31 South Carolina 152
32 Mississippi 149
33 West Virginia 132
34 Florida 128
35 New Jersey 127
36 Georgia 113
37 Arizona 111
38 Connecticut 111
39 Pennsylvania 110
40 Virginia 105
41 Massachusetts 103
42 Maryland 100
43 Louisiana 96
44 Washington 78
45 California 72
46 New York 71
47 Oregon 67
48 District of Columbia 66
49 New Hampshire 56
50 Hawaii 49
51 Maine 24
52 Vermont 16

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,825
2 New York 1,695
3 Massachusetts 1,415
4 Connecticut 1,277
5 Louisiana 1,240
6 Rhode Island 1,094
7 Mississippi 1,065
8 District of Columbia 908
9 Arizona 800
10 Illinois 751
11 Florida 745
12 Michigan 737
13 South Carolina 711
14 Georgia 704
15 Delaware 683
16 Maryland 668
17 Pennsylvania 668
18 Texas 605
19 Indiana 588
20 Alabama 568
21 Arkansas 567
22 Nevada 556
23 North Dakota 541
24 Iowa 490
25 New Mexico 445
26 Ohio 434
27 Missouri 433
28 California 429
29 Tennessee 424
30 Minnesota 406
31 Virginia 405
32 Colorado 383
33 North Carolina 378
34 South Dakota 365
35 New Hampshire 344
36 Kentucky 309
37 Washington 309
38 Idaho 299
39 Kansas 299
40 Oklahoma 296
41 Nebraska 293
42 Wisconsin 278
43 Puerto Rico 240
44 Montana 226
45 West Virginia 222
46 Utah 170
47 Oregon 149
48 Hawaii 131
49 Maine 108
50 Wyoming 98
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 86

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 8
2 South Dakota 6
3 Arkansas 5
4 Missouri 5
5 Georgia 3
6 Indiana 3
7 Florida 2
8 Iowa 2
9 Kentucky 2
10 Louisiana 2
11 Massachusetts 2
12 Montana 2
13 Nebraska 2
14 Rhode Island 2
15 South Carolina 2
16 Tennessee 2
17 Wisconsin 2
18 Arizona 1
19 Connecticut 1
20 Delaware 1
21 Idaho 1
22 Illinois 1
23 Kansas 1
24 Michigan 1
25 Minnesota 1
26 Mississippi 1
27 New Mexico 1
28 Oklahoma 1
29 Puerto Rico 1
30 Texas 1
31 Virginia 1
32 Alabama 0
33 Alaska 0
34 California 0
35 Colorado 0
36 District of Columbia 0
37 Hawaii 0
38 Maine 0
39 Maryland 0
40 Nevada 0
41 New Hampshire 0
42 New Jersey 0
43 New York 0
44 North Carolina 0
45 Ohio 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Pennsylvania 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 170,378 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 157,514 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 154,201 3 99
Lafayette Florida 149,846 4 99
Lake Tennessee 137,970 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 45,753 256 91
Richland South Carolina 40,052 387 87
York South Carolina 22,247 1421 54
Orange California 18,532 1741 44
Pierce Washington 11,493 2428 22

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 5,203 1 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,051 2 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 630 793 74
Davidson Tennessee 468 1135 63
Orange California 444 1185 62
York South Carolina 342 1467 53
Pierce Washington 267 1706 45

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons